Thursday, December 1, 2011

Referenced Facts; Commentary To Come Later

Referenced Facts:

For every $1 earned by the average American worker, the CEO of that firm is compensated $475.  This fact pales incomparison to CEO pay in other countries.  Let's put this in perspective, shall we?  Suppose you make $10/hr and you are an average wage earner at your firm (making roughly $20,800 / year).  For the $10 / hr you make, the CEO of YOUR FIRM makes $4750/hr.  Imagine that:  $4750 per HOUR of work; plus a corporate jet and the ear of every investment banker on Wall Street that would woo you with a 5-star meal and take you to and from the airport in a corporate limo.
http://creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2011/10/07/ration-of-ceo-pay-to-average-worker-by-country/

Only 19% of the income reported by the 13,480 individuals or families making over $10 million came from wages and salaries.  Perspective:  Even if you earned $9,999,999.00 last year, the people that made one DOLLAR more are only one tenth of a percent and control 85% of the wealth in the country and only 1 in 5 can attribute their income to actual production.
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/business/economy/24charts.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1322766425-Cx8flOh5USsnnQL8dzLpmQ

Over the period 2004 - 2008, nearly 15% of elected Washington officials saw an average net worth increase of over 450%.  (Note:  This is an arithmetic mean with a high variance, but is still quite revealing). 
http://governmentgonewild.org/thelist

About 47% of Congresspersons are millionaires.
http://www.opposingviews.com/i/money/personal-finance/47-congress-are-millionaires-just-1-rest-us

90% + of over 5,000 Americans polled believe the top 20% has about 60% of the wealth when in fact the top 20% control about 85% of the wealth.
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
Norton, M. I., & Ariely, D. (2010, forthcoming). Building a better America - one wealth quintile at a time. Perspectives on Psychological Science.

As of 2012, only the first $110,100 of taxable income is subject to Social Security taxation.  Prior to 2012, the cap was around the first $106,000.  This means all taxable income generated above $110,100 is exempt from FICA taxation.

(A little more complex notion)  If there were only 100 wealth holders in the US and one were to calculate a Herfandahl - Hirschman Index (HHI) for the top 20, the result would be a staggering 7,225 on a scale of 10,000.  To put this in perspective, the Federal Trade Commission deems markets where the 50 largest firms have an HHI of 2,500 or higher as "Highly Concentrated."  M Waggy, 2011.  For more insight see:


More to come.....this is just an appetizer...

Saturday, September 10, 2011

An short treatise on NFL gambling.

Most people that follow sports to any significant degree are aware of gambling.  Las Vegas (and all gambling establishments for that matter) generally work on the premise that the house gets a cut (called the vigorish (or 'vig' for short)) for taking the risk of taking the bet.  Generally speaking it is known as the 11 for 10 rule meaning that one must $11 in hopes of winning $10.  What many people don't know is what the purpose of this rule actually is:  To equal the raw dollar amounts on each side of the 'line' so that the book always collects the vig and never loses money.  To the bettor, what this means is that one must win roughly 52.4% of their bets to break even, so a coin flip for betting is a losing proposition; one will never break even (in fact one will lose the vig every time) if one wins exactly half their bets. 

What must be remembered here is important due to the statistical, econometric and economic repercussions about the book seeking to divide the money equally on each side of the line:  the book is not intended to predict the outcome of the event, but merely to balance the raw dollar figures on each side of the line.  It stands to reason that given imperfect information (insider trading, if one deems) results in an inefficiency inherent in the line that makes it potentially profitable through statistical exploitation.  Indeed, there are countless websites and betting hotlines that propose to be able to 'beat the house' and many have met with a degree of success if not a great deal. Therefore, any model which can explain more than 52.4% of the variation in game outcomes will be profitable on average.  Should one feel the necessity, these concepts are explained in great detail by the works of Gandar and Zuber, et al and many others in numerous publications.

What most casual bettors do is play the 'underdog/favorite' line which is, basically, "Who will win and by how much? "  This presents a bettor with two questions to answer:  (1) Which team will win?; and (2) By how much will this team win?  An easier proposition to handle is betting the over/under line which only requires the bettor to answer a single question:  "Will the total number of points scored be more or less than the line?"

Many parlay cards offer a proposition similar to "Under 33 / Over 36."  For the educated bettor, this is a losing proposition (remember, the house wouldn't be the house if it didn't win on average).  As this end is unacceptable to the educated bettor, one must consider embracing the "3 for 3" or "4 for 4" game:  a proposition in which the bettor only bets on the over/under line for exactly 3 or 4 games when winning all of them offers a significant return. 

Some simple models can be offered and I have tested quite a few.  What I can offer is this:  if one takes into account a few number of significant variables, one can exploit the inefficiency created by the necessity of the line to balance the book.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Over 21 After 7:00 - Adult Couples Without Children & The Prices They Pay

In my most recent posting, I referred to a policy purported to exist by Epicenter Theater in Uptown Charlotte which went unenforced.  Today my wife called the theater to voice her complaint a second time and received what appears to be a scripted response to this complaint:  "Was the child disruptive?" and "It's a kids' movie."  Both responses are irrelevant to the question at hand:  Why is the policy clearly stated on the website going unenforced and why are patrons who complain about the lack of enforcement have the complaint fall upon deaf ears?  What recourse have we, as an adult couple without children, to enjoy a night out without having to worry about being disturbed by potentially disruptive children?  Why do adults without children pay the costs (in terms of taxes) for the education and welfare of children yet have no right to be away from them when we specifically choose venues having policies of "Over 21 After 7:00" (see screen shot below) and pay premium prices to avoid this potential encroachment?

As I have stated in a previous post, my wife and I do not 'hate' children, yet we attempt to reserve the right to be in their company when we choose.  A Pittsburgh area restaurant (McDain's) recently adopted a policy of not admitting children under 6 years of age at any time.  While listening to local talk radio on this topic recently, the restaurant had feared they would lose some business over the policy and the fallout that may ensue by outraged parents feeling their children's civil rights were being violated.  As I recall, not only has the policy made the establishment more adult friendly (as it purports itself to be), it has seen an increase in business.  (See http://www.sportsinferno.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90248); Note:  This URL is a discussion board but shows at its head the policy enacted by the establishment).

I recall the mid-1970's when The Lake Apartments (now Sailboat Bay) on Albemarle Road were built as an adult-only apartment community.  I remember this because my sister moved in there after graduation from college and I was told that I was only allowed to visit her when my parents took me and I was not allowed on the grounds after 7:00 pm.  Whether or not this is fact or just what I was told to keep 'out of my sister's hair,' I do not know, but it was effective enough to keep me away as a 9-year old kid.  

Procreation is, and should remain, a fundamental right of any adult in our society.  However, this right should not impart any rights beyond procreation.  That is, once a adult elects to become a parent, any needs of the child should be provided by the parent(s).  Our society has (correctly, I believe) deemed that all children should receive some degree of education (quality notwithstanding, obviously) and inoculations against communicable and / or deadly diseases.  However, many adults whom become parents believe that they are imparted with the right to impose their children upon others in society be it in restaurants, theaters, shopping malls and the like.  The belief of  parents that they have the right to impose their children upon others in society creates a fundamental negative externality (the imposition of a cost on a third party while the third party receives no benefit) upon those whom do not wish to be engaged by minors.

From a purely economic standpoint, lower-income adults have a lower opportunity cost for becoming parents than do higher-income adults.  That is, should a child require 25 hours of supervision per week (a very conservative estimate), the lower-income parent forgoes less in unearned potential income than a higher-income parent (if you're babysitting, you cannot be devoting your full attention to working).  Simple math bears this out:  If you make $10 per hour and your child requires 25 hours of supervision per week, you must forgo $250 in potential income while a person making $40 per hour would have to forgo $1000 in potential income.  Moreover, higher-income persons pay a greater proportion of their income in taxes, part of which goes to programs specifically aimed at minors.  Additionally, adults with children are allowed to claim a deduction on their taxes for having dependents while adults without children receive no tax breaks for not imposing the costs of additional minors on a society with an already strained and outdated economic infrastructure.  

While the jury is still out after China's 25 years of "One Child" policy (see http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr051833), it is easy to understand the rationale behind it: fewer minors impose a smaller cost on society at large for their care.  

Returning to the topic at hand, The Epicenter Theater in Uptown Charlotte refused to issue a refund for the $33.00 spent on tickets to a screening of a movie that promoted as being during the "over 21" hours of business and (according to my  wife) has stated that they may very well change their website.  In case you missed it from the outset, "Over 21 After 7:00" is a myth.  Do Not Pay Premium Prices To Establishments That Refuse To Enforce Their Own Policies Specifically Designed To Encourage Adult Patronage.  At the very least, it is a violation of the Truth In Advertising law; at worst, it is FRAUD.


Sunday, July 17, 2011

Uptown Mez Charlotte Restaurant Week & Theater Review

The concept behind "Queen's Feast" or "Charlotte Restaurant Week" has been purported to be a time when average income earners may patronize some of the more upscale restaurants in the area at a reasonable price; usually $30 per person for a three to four course meal from a selective menu.  While there are some true gems out there (Bonterra, Del Frisco), there are a number of establishments that participate in this week viewing it not as an opportunity to showcase their wares and encourage regular patronage but view the process as a public relations event which allows the establishment to rid itself of less-than-standard stock while burdening the staff to choose between offering high-quality product and service and running the risk of receiving lower tips (since the bill is smaller, the tip can be smaller in raw dollars) or treating the "Restaurant Week" patrons as would be scum that have no business in their establishment to begin with.  The latter is clearly the case with Mez (Epicenter, Uptown Charlotte).

Charlotte's uptown Epicenter reminds me of the mid to late 1980's with abundant bars, omnipresent security, velvet ropes and loud music roaring from any number of different sources; the only thing really missing is half the people shoving spoons up their nose and the other half frowning on it.  It is a great place to see and be seen if you are part of the 21-35 crowd with a six-figure income, a desire for style over substance and enjoy the new millennium's version of 1986.

Mez Bar, Restaurant and Cinema suffers from the newest form of schizophrenia; it doesn't know what it wants to be.  Part restaurant, part bar, part cinema, part adult friendly, part kid friendly, part dance club complete with a DJ station on the second level.  As is often the case, one may be a jack of all trades and master of none.  Such is the case with Mez, it can't really identify what it does other than make money which is great if you're the owner, not so great if you're a patron.  While the staff were more than gracious in attempting to accommodate my wife and I, the execution of the final product left a great deal to be desired.

Having made our reservations for 8:00 and purchasing tickets for the Harry Potter Finale due to start at 9:45 more than a week beforehand, we felt we had chosen wisely to consolidate our date night to a small area to significantly reduce travel time and cost.  We were seated quickly to a two-person table on the second level and while it was out of the way of other tables, it was next to the kitchen door which posed additional noise problems to the already nearly overbearing dance music we were required to endure during our dinner.

The Food.  I ordered a Bibb Salad, Prime Rib (12 oz) with smashed potatoes and grilled asparagus and the Tiramisu dessert.  The Bibb Salad was very good for what it was:  basically a small wedge salad with ranch dressing and bleu cheese crumbles.  I ordered the prime rib "hot red center" (medium rare in most places) and was served the entree' without a steak knife.  The butter knife provided only caused me to nearly knock my entire entree over the edge of the table while trying to cut a piece to eat.  One edge of the cut was gray (nearly well done) while the rest was both fatty and tough


The asparagus and potatoes were tepid as was the prime rib.  The au jus was less than flavorful and by the time I received a proper steak knife, the dish was room temperature.  Additionally, there were no salt nor pepper to be found on any table.

The Tirmisu I had ordered for dessert was of quality near to Harris Teeter.  The plates and silverware were taken away and had I not kept and cleaned my dinner fork, there would have been no silverware to consume the dessert.

While I would never speak for my wife, she ordered the lemon pie for dessert only to find it riddled with raspberries and raspberry syrup (anyone that knows Rose knows she hates raspberries), yet this part of the dessert description was nowhere to be found on the menu.

Giving credit where credit is due, I will say this:  When our server asked, "How is everything?" I responded with, "You really don't want to know."  Having sent my meal to the garbage less than 1/4 eaten spoke volumes to our server and she apologized more times than I could count and had my portion of the meal 'comped.'  Despite the grace with which the server held herself, I couldn't help but believe that the entire meal should have been comped.  It was a disaster from start to finish and while it wasn't (entirely) her fault, someone in that establishment needs to step up and take responsibility for just how bad the dining experience was.  

The Cinema.  The main attraction of the Theater at Mez / Epicenter is that no children (under 21) are allowed in the theater for a movie starting after 9:00 PM.  My wife and I don't hate kids, we just don't do movies with them because they can be loud and disruptive.  After having paid $16.50 per ticket to reserve our seats and being assured by the cinema's policy regarding under-21 viewers, we found an 8 to 10 year old kid in the audience.  While the person was not disruptive and my wife having pointed out the failure of the cinema to police its own policy regarding this occupant of the theater, she was greeted with derision and condescension.  According to the manager on duty, so long as the under age attendant was not disruptive, it was a case of "no harm, no foul."  This view, however, ignores one very important point:  we would never have chosen this cinema (and this restaurant) had we believed that the 'adult only' rule established by the cinema would not be enforced.  Indeed, we could have had a great dinner at Bonterra and seen the movie in 3-D at Phillips Place for a lower cost and better experience.  However, we chose poorly:  We actually believed that Mez would stand by its policies and deliver what it purported.  

Rarely do my wife and I strike an establishment off after a single experience, however, this complete failure to accommodate premium paying patrons certainly falls on the list of:  "Never Again."

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Criminals, Felons, Voting and Serving in Office

A recent Facebook post got me thinking about how our national legislature can enact laws restricting how people may behave in their private lives without the legislators themselves being subject to the same restrictions.  Cases in point:  Many positions require one must have a clean driving record and clear a criminal and background check.  There is no such requirement for elected officials.  Indeed, convicted felons may be allowed to serve as a Congressional Representative or Senator so long as they meet the federal requirements for serving in office (see http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34716.pdf ).

Elected felons can be expelled from office by their peers, but as of the date of this blog, this author has found that only Jim Traficant has expelled from office due to criminal conduct.  The single opinion I found on the matter suggests that a member of congress convicted of a felony would be expelled (http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080713061305AA2yELJ).  This, however, flies in the face of the case of the late Ted Stevens (Sen. - R - Alaska) who would have been allowed to serve had he won the election.


Other positions require successfully passing a polygraph as a condition of employment and passing annual polygraphs as a condition of continued employment.  No such requirement is placed on elected officials.

Convicted felons forfeit their right to vote, own firearms or run for office.  However, if an elected official is convicted of a felony while in (or already running for) office, only their peers may remove them.  The silver lining is that once convicted they cannot run again.  There is quite a gray area covering this scenario which should be addressed by referendum.

Topics to come:  Campaign Finance Reform, Elected Officials' Healthcare and more. 

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Catharsis: Requiem

Thirty Days Down A Hole
For Blake

Barely a month ago
At 10:26 in the morning
My phone rang
And my life would forever change

It had been only hours
Since last we spoke
But somewhere in between
The breath of life began to choke

I began a journey
That would take me
Where I never wanted to go

Just a few yards away
Down a hill and up a drive
In a sad attempt
I tried to save
My brother's life

No beating heart
No breath of life
Pounding his chest
Was short of futile


As I felt his cold skin
And dragged him to the floor
Selfishly hoping to mend
The helplessness felt the night before

Now I find no comfort
All I feel is rage
Praying to heal
And turn this dark page

Thirty Days Down A Hole
Witnesses No Light
Of The Laughs
We Used To Share

Thirty Days Down A Hole
I Find No Easy Way Out
Of Very Few Things I Know
Darkened Daggers To The Soul
Are Never In Doubt

How I want to raise a beer
And laugh with him in good cheer
Thirty Days Down A Hole
Seems So Short Of The Journey
I've Yet To Know


Rest In Peace
My Troubled Brother
I Miss You